By mid-2011, the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste had been an independent nation for a scant nine years. In that time, the tiny Southeast Asian island country had achieved considerable political and economic success. It had undergone a process of post-conflict truth and reconciliation, built democratic institutions and laid the foundations for social and economic development. However, while resource-rich, it remained underdeveloped. In particular, local food production was insufficient to meet domestic consumption needs.

At the heart of this dilemma was rice, a staple commodity in the diet of most Timorese citizens and generally preferred over maize and cassava. The country needed a reliable, affordable and high-quality supply of rice; to date, the government had ensured this through an aggressive import policy coupled with a consumer subsidy. But this expensive policy was becoming even costlier­ and, in light of projected additional hikes in the global rice price, likely untenable. ^[1] Besides, the country itself had rice-growing potential, and the import subsidy placed domestic rice producers at a competitive disadvantage. For years, the government had struggled with the question of whether to continue importing rice or invest in domestic production. Imports would prevent hunger and maintain political peace; a domestic production emphasis would support rural livelihoods and develop the non-oil economy.

In early 2011, Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmão made the call—Timor-Leste’s new, 20-year Strategic Development Plan called for increased domestic rice production, with a goal of self-sufficiency by the year 2020. Parliament endorsed the decision on July 11. But as Gusmão told the closing session of the Timor-Leste Development Partners Meeting only two days later, setting the goal was only the first step:

“The drafting of the Plan is an important step, but it is its implementation that will determine whether the effort was worth it.” ^[2]

Implementation would fall to advisors and civil servants in the prime minister’s office, the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF) and the Ministry of Tourism, Commerce and Industry (MTCI). Rice self-sufficiency by 2020 was one of the most politically sensitive and cross-sectoral of the targets in the strategic plan, and it was one whose progress the prime minister would watch with particular interest—with good reason: it went to the core of the country’s priorities of food security, self-determination, and peace and stability.

Agriculture policymakers had a variety of tools at their disposal. The government could draw from the national Petroleum Fund of Timor-Leste to provide incentives to boost domestic production, and gradually reduce imports as domestic crops increased. Alternatively, it could reduce imports immediately and redirect the savings to domestic rice growing. Or it could encourage reduced domestic rice consumption by increasing the supply of alternative staples such as maize and tubers. Each of these choices, however, came with a price tag and a political consequence—from inadequate income for domestic rice farmers, to the possibility of hunger and civil unrest. A government team would need to consider a host of technical, political, economic and equity questions—and decide on the best mix of policies.