Probability, Decision Making, The Planet, and You


Opportunity Costs

Moving Your Money From One Pocket To Another

One of the things that makes money useful is the ease with which it can be transferred among accounts: from one person to another, or within one person or organization, from one account to another.

Sometimes, however, people associate certain sums of money with certain purposes, and try to keep the accounts separate. For example, if someone is saving money toward a specified purchase, that person may be reluctant to use any of the saved money even to deal with moderate emergencies. This applies whether the money is being hidden in a jar, or deposited in a special bank account, or perhaps just segregated mentally from the rest of the money in one's wallet or checking account.

This sort of segregation of money for specific purposes can lead to decisions that seem paradoxical.

 

Suppose that you are going to a concert and discover, as you are about to enter, that you have forgotten your ticket, for which you had paid $35 in advance. There is no time to go back to get the ticket. It turns out, however, that the concert is not sold out; you could buy another ticket for the same price and get an equivalent seat. Will you buy a new ticket?


Yes
No

Explain your choice below.


 

Some people would buy the new ticket, but a large percentage choose not to, in such a case. Paying $70 seems to them too much for that concert. That is, they are reluctant to transfer an extra $35 from "general funds" into the mental "concert account."

 

On the other hand, suppose you are going to a concert where you plan to buy a ticket for $35 at the door. Just as you are about to enter, you discover that you have lost your transit fare card, which still had $35 credit on it. However, you have enough cash to pay for the ticket and to get back home afterward. Will you buy the ticket?


Yes
No

Explain your choice below.


Here most people would proceed to buy the ticket and hear the concert. Of course, someone who has hardly any more money might consider foregoing the concert and transferring the $35 from the mental "concert account" back to "general funds." But most people who can afford $35 concerts do not make this transfer.

The paradox arises because the two situations can be framed in identical fashion. Either one attends the concert, with $70 less in the sum of all one's money, or one foregoes the concert, having $35 less. The difference in behavior in the two situations stems from the reluctance to transfer money into or out of the mental "concert account."

Another example arises in judging whether to make an effort to get a discount. If you know that a certain calculator is available for $15, at a store that you can reach with a 20 minute walk, and you see it in front of you for $20, you will probably take the walk to save $5. On the other hand, if you know that a leather jacket is available for $175, at a store that you can reach with a 20 minute walk, and you see it in front of you for $180, you are likely to purchase it and avoid the walk.

Each decision should turn on the question of whether it is or is not worth it to you to make the extra effort to save $5. The difference arises because $5 is a substantial fraction of the money in the "calculator" account but it is a near-negligible fraction of the money in the "leather jacket" account. These accounts are purely mental, however, and you can frame each decision as a decision about whether to make a particular effort in order to save $5.

Statistics and the Planet

Relative frequency

Averages

Law of large numbers

Descriptors: mode(s), terciles, quartiles,...

Sampling or measurement error

Systmatic error


Decisions and the Planet

Goals and resources

Accounting and fungibility

Choices

Opportunity costs

Framing

Catastrophic loss


Graphs and the Planet

Bar Graphs for categories

Breaks and histograms

Spinners

Tail graphs: cdf and exceedance


Insure Yourself and The World

Insurance

Tradeoffs


Resources

 

Library of Problems