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Principle 4: Climate
By October 1997, two high-level meetings on El Niño
had taken place in the political arena: one convened by California State
Governor Pete Wilson, and a subsequent meeting in Washington D.C., bringing
to broad attention the forecast for a strong El Niño event that
winter. In California, past experience showed that El Niño is often
associated with above-normal rainfall. The official
forecast, issued in October for southern California for January to
March 1998, was for a 50% chance of above normal rainfall, 30% chance
of normal and 20% chance of below normal rainfall. Since this region is
a winter rainfall region, with most of the annual precipitation falling
in that part of the year (see plot
of average monthly rainfall in Orange County), the implication was
that there enhanced possibility of flooding.
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