Principle 6: Decision
Filipe decides to
bring the level of the lake to just over the level dictated by historical
flows, to 60% of capacity (scenario 3). Although this is not much different
from the 40% he would have allowed with no forecast, the prediction does
not alter the outlook dramatically enough from climatology to respond
with any more extreme action. Additionally, as the season progresses,
he will monitor rainfall very closely over the watershed so that he can
adjust his management accordingly.
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