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Principle 4: Climate
This year Simon is aware that the Regional
Drought Monitoring Center in Nairobi has just issued a seasonal
forecast based on a consensus process with regional and international
climate forecast centers. There is still some chance of the development
of an El Nino event, which is influencing the forecasts to lean towards
a higher chance of above-normal rainfall, or put another way, slightly
lower probability of drought. The forecast is for 35% chance of above
normal, 40% chance of normal, and 25% chance of below normal rainfall.
He also knows that for a few years now, local farmers have been exposed
to information about a seasonal rainfall forecast and are starting to
listen to these and base planting decisions on them. This is likely to
influence sales.
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