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Principle 5: Potential Impacts
After suffering drought in much of the region for two
years, the most recent rainy season has been average, except for a few
remaining dry pockets (see map
of drought index for this rainy season). Farmers are anxious to recoup
losses and reap a good harvest this year. If they expect a good rainy
season, they are more likely to plant more maize, proportionately, that
they might have under a forecast for dryer than normal conditions. They
also might be a bit cautious about the possibility that above normal rainfall
implies an increased chance of flooding or waterlogged fields.
Under normal
circumstances (climatology), Simon would ship 17 tons of maize and 13
tons of sorghum to the moderately wet area, which roughly reflects the
proportion of area planted to these two crops, accounting for differences
in planting density. If farmers expect it to be a dry year, they would
tend to purchase more sorghum and less maize, so shopkeepers might run
out of sorghum and have maize left over. If the expectation is for rainfall
to be near average, they might do well, selling nearly all the seed they
have in stock. If farmers expect the season to be wet, they may be tempted
to plant more maize, since their returns are good in a good year. Here
are the possible scenarios Simon outlines:
(View decision
tree for this case)
1) Ship "as
usual" (17 tons maize/13 tons sorghum)
a) Drier than normal season: run out of sorghum, have maize leftover
b) Normal season: shopkeepers have just enough of each type
c) Above normal season: run out of maize, have too much sorghum
2) Ship slightly more maize (20 tons maize/11 tons sorghum)
a) Drier than normal season: run out of sorghum, have lots of maize leftover
b) Normal season: shopkeepers might still run out of sorghum but there
will be plenty of maize to satisfy farmers' demand
c) Above normal season: have just enough maize, and maybe not even enough
sorghum, if farmers increase the total area planted.
3) Ship equal amounts of seed (15 tons maize/15 tons sorghum)
a) Drier than normal season: might be enough sorghum but it depends on
how farmers react; maybe just the right amount of maize
b) Normal season: shopkeepers have plenty of sorghum but might run out
of maize
c) Above normal season: shopkeepers run out of maize, but have too much
sorghum left unsold.
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